Contents
As a lifelong boxing fan and someone whose everyday job involves analyzing large amounts of data, I thought it would be interesting to apply some quantitative analysis to a sport which has many subjective aspects to it.
ELO rating system
The Elo rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in competitor-versus-competitor games. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins.
If Player A has a rating of and Player B a rating of , the exact formula (using the logistic curve) for the expected score of Player A is
Similarly the expected score for Player B is
This could also be expressed by
and
where and .
A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponents is expected to win 64% of the time; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected probability of winning for the stronger player is 76%. This property of the Elo system allows us to compare fighters of different generations in fantasy match-ups.
Data
Boxrec is one source of historical boxing records, though incomplete, it is a good source for historical rankings, fighter biographical data, and match outcomes. Boxrec even has their own ranking system, which is described here. For this analysis, I used data from Boxrec to calculate the various rankings. Keep in mind Boxrec is incomplete and my sample is likely missing records and only goes until December 2014.
Rankings
| Rank | Fighter | Elo Max |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Sugar Ray Robinson | 2069.52 |
| 2. | Harry Greb | 2052.88 |
| 3. | Benny Leonard | 2019.76 |
| 4. | Henry Armstrong | 2010.28 |
| 5. | Willie Pep | 1978.91 |
| 6. | Joe Louis | 1975.84 |
| 7. | Archie Moore | 1975.61 |
| 8. | Freddie Steele | 1963.16 |
| 9. | Ezzard Charles | 1962.89 |
| 10. | Barney Ross | 1947.24 |
| 11. | Ike Williams | 1946.65 |
| 12. | Kid Gavilan | 1933.69 |
| 13. | Freddie Miller | 1933.29 |
| 14. | Tony Canzoneri | 1932.09 |
| 15. | Mickey Walker | 1924.69 |
| 16. | Lou Ambers | 1923.47 |
| 17. | Carlos Monzon | 1920.35 |
| 18. | Tommy Loughran | 1918.15 |
| 19. | Young Corbett III | 1916.57 |
| 20. | Muhammad Ali | 1909.32 |
| 21. | Ceferino Garcia | 1907.26 |
| 22. | Jose Napoles | 1900.59 |
| 23. | Bobo Olson | 1899.97 |
| 24. | Duilio Loi | 1898.70 |
| 25. | Maxie Rosenbloom | 1897.43 |
| Rank | Fighter | Elo Average |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Sugar Ray Robinson | 1855.00 |
| 2. | Harry Greb | 1817.61 |
| 3. | Willie Pep | 1806.41 |
| 4. | Henry Armstrong | 1759.86 |
| 5. | Archie Moore | 1756.91 |
| 6. | Joe Louis | 1739.19 |
| 7. | Holman Williams | 1732.01 |
| 8. | Maxie Rosenbloom | 1723.70 |
| 9. | Luis Manuel Rodriguez | 1721.78 |
| 10. | Tony Canzoneri | 1719.02 |
| 11. | Freddie Miller | 1716.27 |
| 12. | Ezzard Charles | 1715.72 |
| 13. | Lew Tendler | 1712.23 |
| 14. | Kid Gavilan | 1710.57 |
| 15. | Kid Chocolate | 1703.23 |
| 16. | Young Stribling | 1702.78 |
| 17. | Ike Williams | 1701.01 |
| 18. | Benny Leonard | 1699.89 |
| 19. | Emile Griffith | 1699.42 |
| 20. | Lou Ambers | 1689.37 |
| 21. | Jackie Fields | 1687.93 |
| 22. | Tommy Gibbons | 1687.08 |
| 23. | Bobo Olson | 1685.10 |
| 24. | Wesley Ramey | 1684.10 |
| 25. | Muhammad Ali | 1682.48 |
Sugar Ray Robinson is widely considered to the greatest pound for pound fighter and his Elo rating reflects that. The top 25 largely consists of fighters before the 1970s with the exception of Muhammad Ali. Elo ratings can exhibit an increase (inflation) or decrease (deflation) in the average player rating over time. Boxing has decreased in popularity over time.
Highest Rated Bouts:
| Fighter | Elo | Record | Opponent | Elo | Record | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake LaMotta | 1845.24 | 78-14-3 | Sugar Ray Robinson (W,TKO) | 2058.42 | 120-1-2 | 1951-02-14 |
| Bobo Olson | 1885.60 | 71-8-0 | Sugar Ray Robinson (W,KO) | 2014.54 | 137-4-2 | 1956-05-18 |
| Sugar Ray Robinson (W,KO) | 2003.29 | 136-4-2 | Bobo Olson | 1896.84 | 71-7-0 | 1955-12-09 |
| Joe Louis | 1966.90 | 58-1-0 | Ezzard Charles (W,UD) | 1918.10 | 66-5-1 | 1950-09-27 |
| Henry Armstrong (D,PTS) | 1987.04 | 106-12-6 | Ceferino Garcia | 1896.12 | 112-25-12 | 1940-03-01 |
Worst Mismatches:
| Fighter | Elo | Record | Opponent | Elo | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Benedict | 985.94 | 10-26-0 | Harry Greb (W,TKO) | 1836.32 | 61-2-2 |
| Willie Pep (W,PTS) | 1898.36 | 161-4-1 | Kenny Leach | 1040.90 | 3-14-0 |
| Willie Pep (W,PTS) | 1872.37 | 185-6-1 | Mario Eladio Colon | 1043.31 | 15-47-8 |
| Johnny Cockfield | 10-84-9 | 867.80 | Chalky Wright (W,TKO) | 1774.65 | 153-34-18 |
| Archie Moore (W,RTD) | 1967.89 | 178-21-9 | George Abinet | 1073.68 | 6-14-1 |